2020Q2 GDP estimates look really bad

The economy doesn’t look well

Economists have been tracking quarterly GDP since the end of World War II. That’s over seventy years of data covering many different business cycles and historical events.

And yet, during that time, we haven’t seen anything with as large of an economic impact as we are seeing now from COVID-19. While we already saw a severe impact in 2020Q1 on par with some of the worst quarters on record, early estimates for 2020Q2 look catastrophic:

Without a miracle, we are looking at a drop in real GDP that is three to four times as bad as the worst quarter on record. Now, I don’t have the data to make this claim but I will speculate that this could be the worst quarter almost ever for the United States. I say that because it is hard to think about previous events that shut down the entire economic engine of the country so fast.

This isn't to say that the current situation is the worst thing to happen in our country’s history. It also isn’t to say that it is the worst thing since World War II or the worst recession. That’s all to be seen once the virus is behind us.

But, as of right now, it is looking like the coronavirus will hold the record for causing the worst quarter of economic performance we have seen in modern times. That’s bad enough and let’s hope that is the worst of it.