A way-too-early look at GDP

Three negative quarters in a row?

Now that we’ve had two quarters of negative GDP, there is a big hullabaloo over whether or not we are in a recession. If the debate is raging now, since GDP is negative but other recession metrics don’t look so bad, just imagine what will happen if the data stays inconclusive but we get three negative quarters of GDP in a row!

As of right now, that doesn’t look like it will be the case:

But, wait, we’re only one month into the third quarter here - there is still plenty of time for things to deteriorate!

I don’t know if that will happen but I will definitely be keeping an eye on the data and give an update if we end up seeing a negative estimate as the economic releases roll in.