Bitcoin crushed October

Other asset classes? Not so much

Between stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin, there was one extremely obvious winner this past month:

October was one of those months where people holding regular, safe, boring investments think, “Gee whiz! I gotta get me some of that magic internet money!”

While Bitcoin sure look appealing from this angle, the hard part for anyone jumping into crypto now will be the months where stocks, bonds, and gold go up or down slightly and Bitcoin drops by -27.5% instead of going up +27.5%. The “magic” is actually extremely intense volatility. It’s fun on the upside, horrifying on the downside.

Looking past October, November doesn’t seem to be one of those months that will do very well given a contentious election and surging worldwide COVID-19 cases. Normally, I would say the election will be figured out with plenty of time to spare in the month to actually significantly reduce uncertainty but there are a few scenarios where this is not the case if the vote is very close (e.g. Bush v. Gore).

Even if we get a blowout and have clean results for the coming four years we still have an out of control global pandemic. As I said yesterday, I’d lean towards making a guess that November will see some downside but I’m not making any formal bets here besides saying all bets are off. So, let’s see what happens.

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October was a down month but well within the normal range of past performance over the last ten years

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