I last covered COVID-19 about two and a half weeks ago in a post titled “COVID-19 is everywhere.” At the time, while cases were widespread, they had yet to set a new peak.
Well…what a difference a few weeks can make:
The current uptrend in confirmed US cases is shocking. The worst part is that the follow up increase in deaths doesn’t even reflect the full extent of this current surge yet.
This isn’t just a US phenomenon. The world as a whole is also seeing more cases than ever:
For worldwide data, the chart must be interpreted a little differently than the previous chart due to relatively strong US testing. As a result, the fact that worldwide deaths are at a new peak concurrently with a new peak in cases suggests that we are significantly undercounting the number of positive tests globally, since deaths should lag new confirmed cases.
While it’s well known that a large number of actual positive cases are missed, the new peak in deaths makes one point very clear - the pandemic has now surpassed the worst of the global wave we saw in March and April.
To make matters even more dire, pandemic fatigue is very real and we are unlikely to see the same strict and unified suppression responses we had at the beginning of the outbreak. That is, unless, things get much worse, which is certainly possible. After all, we may be exhausted but the virus is certainly not.
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