Forecast Update - Week 10

Unemployment, GDP, Inflation, and Interest Rates

While things have been a bit crazy in the markets, let’s remember that the underlying trends for the economy move more slowly.

This week, we have a new forecast for unemployment and some minor updates to GDP and inflation. Let’s start with the unemployment picture, which continues to have a positive trend:

Here’s the latest for Real GDP:

Moving to inflation (this moved up slightly with the latest reading showing no signs of slowdown):

Combining the two, we get nominal GDP:

The Fed Funds rate forecast hasn’t changed since last week - I’m really curious to see what kind of hike we get:

Overall, still a decent picture all things considered!

Have a question you want to ask or a topic you’d like to see covered? Let me know!

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