GDP Down Again
Getting closer to negative
We just got a new estimate for Q3 GDP:
This is down from the last reading and, more importantly, edges us even closer to zero and, potentially, into negative territory.
That matters for the overall economic narrative, which has mostly skirted the technical recession story of two negative quarters of GDP…so far.
Three quarters of negative GDP makes it a lot trickier to deny recession talk and could lead to further deterioration as deniers capitulate.
Last time we revised the definition of recession and maintained that the definition was outdated for our modern economy.. This time we will change the algebraic convention and claim that (-) is the now (+) and the sign convention was too old and confusing.
Hi Luke,
What is the source of this number? Is it Atlantic Fed? I don't see anything for Q3 on the BEA releases.
Cheers,
DV