If the market bottom is in, how long until we set a new all-time high?

It's hard to be patient

The S&P 500 hit the lowest point of this downturn (so far) on May 19th:

Since there has been some time since then, it raises the question of whether or not the worst is behind us. And, if it is, when will the market hit a new all-time high?

To make a guess at that, let’s consider the previous market downturns from the table above in a scatter plot:

Although I left out the Great Depression since it was a pretty extreme outlier, for the most part, there seems to be at least a ballpark data spread for us to put a trendline through. Remember though, each market downturn is different so we have no idea how this one is going to turn out compared to these or if the bottom is even in!

All those multiple caveats aside, using this trendline and applying the current downturn, we would be looking at about six more months of market climbing before we see the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. That’s not too bad but…as with all things in the market, actual results may vary. Either way, it will be fun to revisit this post in December to see where things are!

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