You are probably well aware of the terrible inflation print that came out yesterday:
That sure doesn’t look very transitory.
Worse yet, the underlying monthly change was absolutely huge:
So, not only are things bad compared to a year ago, they are really bad compared to just last month!
One somewhat decent development is that year-over-year core inflation (i.e., less food and energy) has been lower for three months straight now:
But this metric also looks terrible on a monthly basis:
Overall, it’s ugly. Maybe ugly enough to finally be a peak but who the heck knows. At this point, even if it was the peak, there remains plenty of pain on the way down back to whatever the new normal is supposed to be.