Quick Stock Thoughts

Second half

The first half of the year was brutal for the market. But, that’s in the past now. We can’t say what the last six months means for the future. We should just pretend we have no recollection of what happened before and just think about the here and now.

Based on the current level of the market, I’d say things are pretty fairly valued. We have a recession that might materialize in the coming quarters and there could always be some new unexpected bad news so an additional drop of 10-20% is by no means impossible. But, that’s always true of the market isn’t it?

There’s also nice upside available from the easing of thorny issues holding stocks down like inflation and war. If there is resolution for one or both of those problems that will provide a nice positive.

Those issues could get worse though…

Ultimately, the market has a natural drift to the upside. Our best guess is that we will end the year higher than current levels. That’s always the best guess for the market over any time period but especially as the time period gets longer!

So, let’s put a bad half behind us and start from a blank slate. It’s certainly better than dwelling.