Some quick thoughts COVID-19 right now
Where do we stand?
I’ve spent so many posts now simply announcing new pages on the Endless Metrics site that I thought it might be nice to take a break and just stream of consciousness some thoughts on the current COVID-19 outbreak in the United States.
A lot of coverage right now is pushing the narrative that new cases are higher than ever so the outbreak must be worse than ever. It’s certainly possible but one particular metric suggests otherwise - deaths.
Deaths right now are about a third of where they were at the peak three months ago. That’s partly due to better treatment as we continue to learn about the disease. But, we aren’t that much better at treating it. It’s still incredibly deadly and dangerous. So, that suggests to me that the true number of new cases now is lower than in back in February and March.
It’s also obvious that deaths lag new cases. The chart above is already lagged a week but some people say it should be lagged up to a month. That longer time span implies that the Northeast (and New York City in particular) had an immense number of cases already in mid-to-late February.
Perhaps a new surge in deaths higher than the peak three months ago is inevitable based on current numbers. But I’m not so sure I believe that because we are running so many more tests now and have a much lower positivity rate. If new cases per day were in the 120-180 thousand range I’d think so. And, it’s possible we still get to that range because the outbreak is still going strong. So, balancing smart preventative measures on the path to “normal” continues to be incredibly important.
Whether the speculation above is somewhat near reality or totally off base, what really keeps me up at night is the fact that this pandemic has exceeded my (and most everyone’s) worst expectations every step of the way. I’m cautiously optimistic about things now (despite all the missed opportunities for the U.S.) but can’t shake the feeling there is still some unknown boogeyman lurking. I suppose only time will tell.