If you aren’t familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then you may have been living under a rock for the last hundred years:
A lot of people, however, are less familiar with the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is actually older than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and originally tracked the popular railroad stocks of the 1880s:
The transportation index has evolved since the railroad heyday to include trucking, logistics and other things that didn’t exist when it first started like airlines. It’s useful as an index on its own and also as a metric relative to the industrial average:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average / Transportation Average ratio tends to rise prior to and during periods of economic and market weakness. Companies in the regular Dow make stuff and transport companies move stuff, so if the former is rising while the latter is not, it suggests there is a backlog that isn’t flowing through the economy properly.
Lately, the ratio has continued to fall since the COVID crash, which is a good sign! And, if you want to check in on the ratio periodically going forward, I’ve set up some live chart links below and will make some stand alone metric webpages for these charts in the near future!
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