The Recent Market Low Signals A Longer Recovery

A new all-time high in 2022 looks increasingly unlikely

Just a week ago, I wrote some thoughts about how long the market might take to recover if the bottom was already in. The big word there was “IF” and obviously the May 19th bottom was not the bottom.

So, now that we’re in an even deeper hole, what does a recovery timeline look like?

A week ago, it was roughly looking like December based on previous downturns. (This is a completely back-of-the-envelope guess and not an exact science by any means, so don’t go thinking this is any more than a just a reasonable guess with some math behind it!)

With the new low and the even longer decline that we’ve had from top to bottom, the ballpark guess for a new all-time high for the market is pushed even further out to May of 2023.

This is all assuming the market doesn’t fall any further and things play out in the future in a similar manner to how they’ve played out in the past. What I mean to say is, no one has any idea!

But, it will make for a fun guess to track over time to see how it holds up. And, we will update it again if the market continues to drop.