“This doesn’t surprise me”

Jobs

Yesterday, I tuned into the release of the jobs report. Prior to the print, some experts weighed in on their predictions, which were at or below the consensus estimate of a quarter million jobs.

Then, we got the read - over half a million jobs. More than double. A big surprise!

First off, this just goes to show that predicting things, even moments before they happen, is hard. Any sports fan will tell you about a game that was all but won until something crazy happened in the waning minutes.

The thing that stood out to me though, was as soon as the number came out, everyone started changing their story and adjusting their commentary as if they hadn’t just completely whiffed.

One commentator who had, at 8:29AM guessed in the low 200s for jobs, and saw the 528k at 8:30AM, had the gumption to say at 8:31AM, that “this doesn’t surprise me.”

I’m sorry but if the surprise result suddenly makes sense then the prior prediction should have made no sense. Either you knowingly put forth a senseless prediction or you are wrong.

It’s okay to get stuff wrong. I get things wrong all the time. But, don’t suddenly turn and act like an expert when you just missed.

It’s like if I claimed to be really good at basketball and then miss a shot so badly that it becomes entirely obvious that I’m not good at basketball but then continue to say that I’m really good as if I hadn’t just blown it.

I’m not saying all this to single anyone out - no need to name and shame. We all do this at times. But, the point of this rant is that we should normalize admitting when we are wrong!

If we pretend we knew all along we aren’t actively reflecting on why we were wrong in the first place and what we and our audience stand to gain from learning about the discrepancy.

So, don’t be afraid to admit mistakes - admit and proudly move forward with the new knowledge gained from the failure!