Job Losses (and the Pandemic) Continue

The new normal does not look good

Before the pandemic really exploded in the U.S. back in March, initial claims for unemployment hovered just above 200,000 per week. Things have obviously changed:

While the worst is (hopefully) behind us, the number of people who have lost their jobs and are making initial unemployment filings has settled into a level almost four times the pre-pandemic norm. Worse yet, with winter upon us and the easy economic gains from the post-crash bounce behind us, there are no guarantees this trend continues its decline.

COVID-19 remains rampant across the U.S. and many experts predict a resurgence as the weather cools. If you ask me, conditions seem likely for an economic, market, and public health letdown. While many businesses have done everything they can to power through the crisis, how many can continue to survive in the new normal?

Time and time again, the expectation for how long this pandemic will last has been optimistically short. If we see weakness now, what does that mean for three, six, twelve, or even twenty-four months from now? It’s hard to fathom but important to consider. Hard to believe it’s already been seven months…

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The S&P 500 continues to rise off the most recent market bottom

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