Hi Luke! Scenarios is a good idea especially if one can judge their plausibility correctly. One thing, good financial commentary does (again like you said it is an info about something that already happened but informative nonetheless) is letting you know if a future expectation is already priced in the markets or not.
For exemple, Brexit happening the way it happened was already priced in European markets before it actually happened and without any surprise developments the markets didn't get effected as much at the beginning of the year when Brits finally exit the EU (even though all customs struggles, delay and costs of the Brexit started hitting after that point). So I guess good financial commentary talks about the future scenarios and tells you which one of them is already priced in (if any).
Great point! I'll have to think about the right way to approach the "priced in" component but I'll be sure to talk about that when presenting scenarios since it's definitely a great conversation driver (as there may be disagreement about whether something really is priced in or not)
Hi Luke! Scenarios is a good idea especially if one can judge their plausibility correctly. One thing, good financial commentary does (again like you said it is an info about something that already happened but informative nonetheless) is letting you know if a future expectation is already priced in the markets or not.
For exemple, Brexit happening the way it happened was already priced in European markets before it actually happened and without any surprise developments the markets didn't get effected as much at the beginning of the year when Brits finally exit the EU (even though all customs struggles, delay and costs of the Brexit started hitting after that point). So I guess good financial commentary talks about the future scenarios and tells you which one of them is already priced in (if any).
Great point! I'll have to think about the right way to approach the "priced in" component but I'll be sure to talk about that when presenting scenarios since it's definitely a great conversation driver (as there may be disagreement about whether something really is priced in or not)