Some thoughts on what comes next

New things in the new year

I know it might be early to think about New Year’s resolutions but I’ve got one I’m really excited about. That’s because, for the past year, while I’ve written a lot about metrics, there hasn’t exactly been a cohesive answer for why any of this matters. Numbers are neat but what’s the point? That will soon be answered with the next step for the newsletter in 2021.

See, metrics are all about reading the tea leaves to make some kind of guess about what could happen in the future. Historical data doesn’t guarantee future performance but, when applied properly, it shouldn’t hurt.

Guesses about the future can always go sideways if you are super unlucky but if you have a strong knowledge about current developments in the market and economy and you can make a guess on the future that is more likely to be right than someone who makes a blind guess, you can gain a competitive advantage by making better decisions. The most obvious place that better decisions can be applied to make a profitable choice is investments.

In the coming year, I’ll be making regular purchases of stocks, bonds, commodities, and, yes, even cryptocurrency, to create a portfolio based on metric-driven analysis (and some good old-fashioned instinct). Most importantly, I’ll be sharing every single move I make, why I am making it, and, after some time passes, why I think it went right or wrong.

The goal is simple but (according to most academics) effectively impossible: get more return than the S&P 500 and do it with less risk.

Tough challenges are fun. The upside is making good money and the downside is learning from mistakes. Fortunately, every step, right or wrong, will be documented so, at the end of the year, you can either call me lucky or an idiot!

Along the way, each metric will hopefully take on more useful meaning as it’s applied toward that simple goal of “beating the market.” Which, again, is supposed to be impossible but maybe we now know just enough to be stupid enough to try. Anyways, more details to come in the next few weeks before we kick off 2021 with a fresh portfolio.

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