IMO its not a real recession until you start seeing unemployment over 6-7%. The current "recession" is merely an artifact of us printing less money and raising interest rates, not a true contraction of the economy.
This is an excellent explanation of the dreaded GDP/recession obsession that keeps the talking heads on TV occupied. I was listening to an NPR Planet Money podcast where an ex-NBER analyst was on and he went as far as saying that it could be several years after a recession that it would be declared a recession. The reason being that it is not within their remit to provide time-sensitive info.
And as you elude to, with unemployment (in the US) a such a low level (statistically zero), how could you "declare" a recession?
I'm definitely in the camp that if it feels like a recession, then it is a recession!
IMO its not a real recession until you start seeing unemployment over 6-7%. The current "recession" is merely an artifact of us printing less money and raising interest rates, not a true contraction of the economy.
This is an excellent explanation of the dreaded GDP/recession obsession that keeps the talking heads on TV occupied. I was listening to an NPR Planet Money podcast where an ex-NBER analyst was on and he went as far as saying that it could be several years after a recession that it would be declared a recession. The reason being that it is not within their remit to provide time-sensitive info.
And as you elude to, with unemployment (in the US) a such a low level (statistically zero), how could you "declare" a recession?
I'm definitely in the camp that if it feels like a recession, then it is a recession!